Dallas Cowboys: Kill the Three-Headed Monster

After last Sunday's loss to the Bears, I emailed Dallas Radio stations because someone needed to talk about the very easy solution that would fix the Cowboys' problems.  I don't think they ever mentioned it though.  So, I'm going to say it again here.  The Cowboys need to kill the three-headed monster!

How many elite, Super Bowl winners can you think of that used a 3-running back system where there wasn't one primary back that got the bulk of the carries?  In the last 20 years, there might have been 2 teams that got it done with 2 running backs carrying somewhat equal loads:  last year's Saints and the1991 Giants.  Otherwise, you could go back to the 1975 Steelers and not find a team that used a multi-running back system. 

There's a very good reason for not using multiple running backs.  It doesn't allow the offense to establish a rhythm.  This is especially true for the Dallas Cowboys.  Marion Barber starts, but is getting only about 10 carries per game in the 1st two games.  He splits time primarily with Felix Jones who's getting 7 carries per game so far, and Tashard Choice has gotten 3 carries per game.  1st of all, that's only 20 carries per game by Cowboys half backs.  Comparatively, they've attempted to throw the ball 49 times per game in the 1st two games.  So, not only are they not establishing an offensive rhythm with the running game, but they are also passing 71% of the time.  And, that's probably because of not being able to establish a ground attack.

They seem to have this idea that changing up the running backs makes it harder for defenses to game plan or adjust during the game to the Cowboys offense.  Really?  I don't think so.  The Cowboys' offense is actually very predictable.  Everyone knows that Barber and Jones are going to split carries and Choice is going to run the Wild Cat.  Everyone also knows that Barber is going to pound on you every chance he gets and that Choice is supposed to be the change-up, deep-threat back.  By the way, thru 2 games, Felix Jones has averaged 3 yards per carry with a long of 11 yards.  That's just not going to get it done.  Barber's average is 3.7 with a long of 12.  Now to his credit, Jones has also caught 4 passes for 9.5 yards each, but given the chance Barber could be a productive receiver out of the back field as well.

So, Kill the Three-Headed Monster!  Barber should get 20 carries per game and be the feature back.  He's a brute that's going to average at least 4 yards per carry and wear down a defense.  He also fires up his offense.  I would think that offensive lines would like to block for a guy like that.  Create an offensive rhythm based on pounding a defense up front and hitting them deep with Austin and the other receivers.  This isn't Emmitt and Moose, but it could be similarly effective.  Barber won't lead the world in rushing, but 4 yards per carry is a first down every 3 plays.  1st downs wear down defenses and lead to scoring.  This type of running attack will also take pressure off of Romo and cause defenses to put more guys up to protect against the run.  Then guess what?  The passing game will open up.  Also, running the ball effectively will prevent you from having to overload the passing game with a 71% mark.  That's just not working!

So, what about Felix Jones?  What can I say?  Trade him.  If he can't get at least a 2nd and late round pick, then what are we doing with him anyways?  Pick up another offensive lineman.  AND DUMP THAT PENALTY MACHINE ALEX BARRON!!!  Dallas could also use another safety.  Whatever - just make a move to improve the team.

And Tashard Choice?  Welcome to 2nd string buddy.  He should get 5 to 10 carries per game, depending on the situation.  He would be a very good back-up to Barber.  Then, the Cowboys offense would be like just about every other teams' offense that has won a Super Bowl in the last 3 decades.

Jason Garrett, what are you doing?  Stop tricking up the offense and get back to the dominant running game that you should know very well about already.  Kill the Three-Headed Monster.

My Fantasy Football Team

At first glance, my fantasy football team was a power house - in spite of me getting to the draft 30 minutes late.  When I got there, my pre-draft rankings had already helped me automatically draft Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, and Jermichael Finley.  Being late actually put me at a disadvantage though because I didn't get to settle into the process like I would have liked to.

I ended up drafting Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes as a stater and backup respectively, but didn't realize that both of them were injured.  So, I had to pick up new free agents to replace them:  Kevin Boss and Josh Morgan.  I also moved a player out and picked up Correll Buckhalter.  These new players aren't probably on many people's fantasy teams, but here I am with them.  Hopefully I can trade Boss since I don't need 4 tight ends on my team and I also have Anthony Fasano of Notre Dame.

I was late picking up running backs, mostly an affect of drafting later in the first 2 rounds, but I did end up with decent picks:  Marion Barber and Pierre Thomas.  I also have Kevin Smith of Detroit, who could do well if that passing game and offensive line do well, and LaDanian Tomlinson of the Jets.

Here is a full listing of my team:

Starters
QB - Drew Brees
RB - Marion Barber
RB - Pierre Thomas
RB - LaDanian Tomlinson
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Joshua Cribbs
TE - Vernon Davis
TE - Jermichael Finley
D - Ravens
K - Janikowski

Other Bench Players
QB - Eli Manning
RB - Kevin Smith
RB - Correll Buckhalter
WR - Josh Morgon
TE - Anthony Fasano
TE - Kevin Boss
D - Tennessee

So, I have some very clear weaknesses:

1.  I'm too heavy at Tight End.
2.  I'm very weak at Wide Receiver (unless Cribbs blows up).
3.  Running back is iffy since Barber has to split time and Tomlinson - who knows?

My obvious strengths are:

1.  QB
2.  Fitzgerald
3.  Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley are 2 of the top 5 TE's in the NFL.
4.  Janikowski is the only kicker that was a 1st round pick.
5.  Ravens and Titans defenses are strong.
6.  If my running backs hit, I'll be hard to stop.

My Favorite College Football Teams

As I'm sitting and watching Notre Dame Football, I'm thinking of my favorite college football teams to watch and follow.  I love lists and this one is a fun list.  These are my favorite college football teams to watch and follow.

1.  Notre Dame
2.  Texas
3.  USC
4.  Penn State
5.  Michigan (hoping they lose)
6.  Pittsburgh
7.  Miami
8.  Oregon
9.  Georgia
10.Florida State

I know some of you will disagree with my list because it doesn't have your favorite team.  Sorry about that.  Chances are you like the wrong team anyways.  :)

Enjoy your College Football Season!

chris

Thank God for College Football!

It's the opening weekend of College Football and I've spent all morning watching ESPN College Gameday and a variety of games.  I watched some of the Michigan State and Penn State games, and I've flipped thru other games.  But, my favorite team plays their 1st game of the season in just a few minutes!  NOTRE DAME.

My friends often ask me why I like Notre Dame so much.  I live in Texas, so why am I not a Longhorn fan?  Answer:  I am a Longhorn fan - a huge Longhorn fan.  And I'm asked why I don't follow UNT since I graduated from there - Really???

The truth is that I've like Notre Dame for as long as I can remember, but as I've gotten older, I've really come to love the Irish.  Tradition is the best part of college football (other than winning).  Does anyone really have a more rich history and football tradition than The University of Notre Dame?  I don't think so.  And while winning has been scarce in recent years, Notre Dame has it's share of national championships.  You know what else?  Notre Dame is God's team too.  I don't have what it takes to go against God.

There's Touchdown Jesus, Joe Montana, Tim Brown, Knute Rockne, Rocket Ismael, (more recently - Golden Tate), Jerome Bettis, Lou Holts, "Play Like a Champion Today", Gold dust in the freshly painted helmets, Rudy, "The Gipper", Hornung, 29 Bowl Games, 7 Heismans, and on and on and on.

So anyways, it goes without saying that I'm super excited about the opening weekend of college football.  Go Irish!  Thank God for College Football!

Fantasy Football - Quarterbacks

In review, I've written some other articles about Fantasy Football Picks.  Those can be found at:

http://everynightfootball.blogspot.com/2010/07/top-nfl-fantacy-picks.html
http://everynightfootball.blogspot.com/2010/08/fantasy-football-top-20-wide-receivers.html
http://everynightfootball.blogspot.com/2010/08/top-10-fantasy-football-running-backs.html

This particular article is about Fantasy Football Quarterbacks.  Previously, I've said that my top 5 are:

1. Drew Brees

2. Tony Romo

3. Peyton Manning

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Matt Schaub

NFL.com differs slightly from me in the Top 5 in that Schaub is #6 and Tom Brady is in their top 5.  NFL.com's top 20 Fantasy quarterbacks can be found at http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/rankings/qb.
 
They also have Cutler (CHI) at 9 and Kolb (PHI) at 10.  I don't think so, but we'll see.  I think I would put Matt Ryan (ATL) and Joe Flacco (BAL) ahead of those guys.  Phillip Rivers was a good choice for the Top 10 with over 4,000 passing yards in each of his last 2 years and an average of 31 TD passes per year during that time.
 
So, with all of that said, here are my QB picks 6 thru 10.
 
6.  Phillip Rivers (SD)
 
7.  Tom Brady (NE)
 
8.  Joe Flacco (BAL)
 
9.  Matt Ryan (ATL)
 
10.Brett Favre (MIN)

Fantasy Football - Top 20 Wide Receivers

I compared NFL.com and ESPN.com to my Top 20 WR picks.  Here are the results.
 

My picks are somewhat based on last year's production by each player, but I also took into consideration each team's quarterback, running backs, and other wide receivers.  If I thought a particular team was likely to run the ball very successfully, then I might not have rated the wide receiver as high for fantasy purposes.  Similarly, if a team had more than 1 top-level wide receiver, I might have rated the fantasy player on my list differently as a result.  Lots of factors go into rating players for fantasy football.  I won't go into all of them here.  At least, you have 3 lists to choose from if you want to use this for your fantasy draft.

Top 10 Fantasy Football Running Backs

It's time to make your fantasy football picks.  I think the running back position is the most important position in Fantasy Football.  Previously, I've posted what I consider to be the top 5 at each position in fantasy football.  To finish out the list of running backs, these are who I consider to be the Top 10 Fantasy Football Running Backs.

1.  Chris Johnson
2.  Adrian Peterson
3.  Maurice Jones-Drew
4.  Michael Turner
5.  Ray Rice
6.  Frank Gore
7.  Rashard Mendenhall
8.  Cedric Benson
9.  LaDainianTomlinson
10.Ryan Grant

As a Cowboys fan, I want to put Marion Barber on this list, but he's on a team that is very strong and deep in running backs.  If he didn't have to split time with 2 other guys, he would definitely be on this list.  Felix Jones might have made the list too, but on top of being in the mix with 3 running backs, he needs to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season before he can make my Top 10 List.

Dallas Cowboys 2010 Season Prediction

I just reviewed the Dallas Cowboys 2010 regular season schedule and I think the best they could do is 14-2.  The worst they could do is 11-5.  The NFC East is going to be a relatively weak conference with the Giants being the only serious competition this year.  Their complete regular season schedule is listed below.

@ WAS
CHI
@ HOU
BYE
TEN
@ MIN
NYG
JAX
@ GB
@ NYG
DET
NO
@ IND
PHI
WAS
@ ARI
@ PHI

The most likely losses would be to Green Bay and New Orleans.  Other possible losses could be to Tennessee, Indianapolis, and the Giants (@ NYG).  Green Bay will have a strong passing attack and it's at Lambeau Field.  New Orleans will have the momentum of just winning the Super Bowl, and as long as Brees is healthy, they'll be tough.  Tennessee has the best running back in football and Vince Young could be dangerous and unpredictable.  Indianapolis has a genius quarterback that could beat any team on any given Sunday.  Going to New York to play the Giants is always tough.  I think the Cowboys can win there, but if a loss is going to come, it could just be at New York.

What do you think about my prediction?  If you're a Redskins or Eagles fan, I'm sure you wrongly disagree.  So, aside from those guys, if you have a different opinion, leave a comment.

NFL Teams That Nobody Likes

This one's easy.  Here are the teams that NOBODY likes.

1.  Washington Redskins
2.  Philadelphia Eagles
3.  New York Giants

My 9-year old son calls these (very unaffectionately):

1.  The dead skins
2.  The dirty little birdies
3.  The dirty little midgets

When I ask him, "Who likes the Redskins?"  His answer is quickly, "NOBODY!"  That's just how it is.

Of course I taught it to him like that, but he seems to like it quite a bit.

GO COWBOYS!

NFL Lockout in 2011? Really?

The NFL owners and players are talking about a possible lockout in the NFL season.  Why?  Players want more money and owners want to pay less money.  Maybe the owners  just don't want to pay more money than they already are.  Regardless, the owners' main reason is so they will make more money.

I am not one of those that complains because players make millions of dollars, and I don't care that owners can make billions of dollars.  I hate that it's so expensive to go to a game, with tickets, parking, and concessions, but I get a choice there and that choice is to watch it on a large HD TV in my living room instead.  Anyways, even if players didn't make that kind of money, owners are still going to charge as much as fans are willing to pay, and stadiums are sold out, so that's that.

My problem is about the fact that NFL owners and players can't just all get happy and the negative public image that causes about the greatest sport in this country - football.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average American earned $43,460 in 2009.  I didn't do the math, but my guess is that the average cost of living to go with that was probably more than half of that.  So, who thinks the average American wants to hear about an NFL lockout due to salaries and other financial complaints?  Let's see. . .

In 2009, the average base salary for an NFL player was $990,000.  The minimum NFL salary was $310,000.  Of course, that means that out of the 53 players on each team's roster, the 53rd player made at least $310,000.  That's a lot of money.  Maybe the NFL owners have a legitimate complaint.  Well, according to the USA Today, in September 2009, the average NFL team value was over $1 Billion.  Value takes into account things like players' salaries.  That means that AFTER owners pay their players, their teams are still worth over $1 Billion.

Hey,  if all these guys want to fight about money, I'm not mad.  I just think they should get behind a closed door and get a deal done. People who make $43,000 per year just don't want to hear about it.

No, You Carry My Shoulder Pads Roy!

Roy Williams says it's a rookie tradition to carry the shoulder pads of veteran players.  Dez Bryant thinks he should carry his own pads.  I'm all for traditions and who knows - maybe Bryant should carry someone's pads.  Patrick Crayton was ranked #60 in 2009 among NFL wide receivers with 622 receiving yards.  Miles Austin was #3 with 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Maybe he could carry Austin's pads, but Roy Williams should maybe carry Bryant's pads after last season's #67 ranking and only 596 receiving yards.  Dude - shut up and catch the ball!

And that ends the shortest blog post I've ever written.  The End.

Top 10 NFL Hall of Fame Running Backs

Aren't Top 10 lists fun?  I like them because everyone's list is different.  If you follow sports, you have a Top 10 List of your own, probably several Top 10 lists.  This particular list is so much fun because it's a list of great running backs - the most exciting guys on the field - those who touch the ball more than anyone other than the Quarterback and the Center.  Because of that, the great ones become household names that younger backs have to live up to for all time.

The "modern era" of the Pro Football Hall of Fame consists of 27 running backs (halfbacks & fullbacks).  Many of those players are so old and have been retired for so long (and in some cases have already passed away), that many younger football fans have not heard of them, and that's really too bad.  Most of the names on the list, however, are very well known.  You'll find names like Doak Walker (SMU) and Paul Hornung (Notre Dame - Go Irish!), and everyone knows Frank Gifford from Monday Night Football.  But, like I said, so many of those names are of players that even I had to look up.  With that said, my Top 10 list of NFL Hall of Fame running backs is filled with "household" names and greatness.

1.  Walter Payton
2.  Barry Sanders
3.  Emmitt Smith
4.  Earl Campbell
5.  Jim Brown
6.  Tony Dorsett
7.  Eric Dickerson
8.  Marcus Allen
9.  Gale Sayers
10.Thurman Thomas

Players who were edged out of my Top 10 List were:  O.J. Simpson, Larry Czonka, Franco Harris, and John Riggins.  Czonka played on the famous Dolphins undefeated team.  Harris is known for "The Immaculate Reception".  John Riggins was a total bruiser (and too bad he was a Redskin).  And O.J. . . . .

You tell me - where did I go wrong with my list?  Who should be there and who shouldn't be?  Any arguments on who's number 1?  If so, provide feedback on my blog and let me know.

NFL Divisional Rankings Predictions

Today is the start of preseason in the NFL and I've put together my list of divisional ranking predictions for the end of the 2010/2011 NFL season.  First of all, I believe that the worst teams by the end of this NFL season will be (in order from worst to bad):  Rams, Raiders, Browns, Bills, Chiefs.  The best teams will be (in order from best to very good):  Cowboys, Saints, Colts, 49ers, Ravens.

With that said, these are my predictions for the NFL divisional rankings as of the end of the 2010/2011 NFL Season.

I think at this point, I'll hold off on giving playoff and Super Bowl predictions until I've seen at least a few games of the NFL regular season.

Top NFL Fantasy Picks

Running Backs - The most important fantasy football position.

1.  Chris Johnson
2.  Adrian Peterson
3.  Maurice Jones-Drew
4.  Michael Turner
5.  Ray Rice

Wide Receivers

1.  Andre Johnson
2.  Miles Austin
3.  Sidney Rice
4.  Randy Moss
5.  Calvin Johnson

Quarterbacks

1.  Drew Brees
2.  Tony Romo
3.  Peyton Manning
4.  Aaron Rodgers
5.  Matt Schaub

Tight Ends

1.  Vernon Davis
2.  Dallas Clark
3.  Jason Witten
4.  Tony Gonzalez
5.  Jermichael Finley

Team / Defense

1.  49ers
2.  Saints
3.  Cowboys
4.  Jets
5.  Broncos

Kickers (sorry - had to add them)

1.  Nate Kaeding
2.  Matt Prader
3.  David Akers
4.  Rob Bironas
5.  Ryan Longwell

My 9-Year Old Son's Football Memory

OK, so today is July 20, 2010 and I sat down with my youngest son Aaron, who is 9 years old and I asked him to tell me the outcome and the score of random NFL games from the 2009 season.  I made sure to ask him about the Cowboys because that keeps it fun for him.  He made me specify which stadium each game was played in so that he was sure to get the right answer.  For example, the stadium they played in makes a difference when Dallas plays Washington in Washington D.C. versus playing them another week in Dallas. 

On each of the match-ups below, the bottom team is the home team.  The 1st column of numbers was Aaron's answer to the score.  If there is a second column, it's because he was wrong on the score.  Otherwise, I wrote "Correct" next to his answer.

I asked him about 28 games from the 2009 season:  21 Regular Season Games (including 1 Trick Question), 6 Playoff Games (including 1 Trick Question), and the Super Bowl.

Results:  Aaron got 100% of the Correct Winners and 54% of the Scores + Trick Questions Right.  When he was incorrect on a score, he was only off by an average of 3.5 points.  The raw data is found below.


Cowboys 17 Correct

Redskins  0

Redskins 24 Correct
Eagles     27

49ers      10 Correct
Falcons   45

Raiders   36 20
Broncos  30 19

Cowboys 26    Correct
Chiefs      20    Aaron reminded me this was in overtime.

Cowboys   35 34
Buccaneers 21 21

Jets     17 19
Bills    10 13

Redskins   6 Correct
Cowboys  7

Eagles       24 Correct
Cowboys  0

Cowboys  28 24
Giants       31  31

Giants       33 Correct
Cowboys  31

Packers      24 28
Buccaneers 33 38

Packers      31 21
Bears         28 14

Seahawks   17 Correct
Cowboys    38

Patriots      Trick Question:  These Teams Never Played and Aaron Called Me On This.
Raiders

Jets         14 14
Patriots   37 31

Bills         17 16
Jets         10 13

Jets         38 Correct
Raiders    0

Packers   38 34
Lions       10 12

Miami     10 17
Patriots   38 27

Raiders     7 Correct
Cowboys  24

Super Bowl
Saints       31 Correct
Colts        17

Playoff
Jets          17 Correct
Colts       30

Vikings    27 31
Saints      24 28   Aaron reminded me this was in overtime

Cowboys 3 Correct
Vikings    33

Jets         17 17
Chargers 13 14

Vikings   Trick Question:  I asked him who the Vikings Beat In Order to Play the Cowboys.
Aaron said the Vikings had a Bye Week.   Correct

Jets         23 24
Bengals   17 14

NFL Teams I Hate the Most

I'm a Cowboys Fan. What would you expect.
   1.  Washington Redskins
   1a. Philadelphia Eagles
   1b. New York Giants

Denver Broncos - Never liked them and I don't have a good reason.

San Diego Chargers - The Raiders are a team I want to see do well.  So, down with the Chargers!

Buffalo Bills - Boring!

St. Louis Rams - They Suck!

Seattle Seahawks - Whose idea was those uniforms?  Also - Boring!

Top 10 All-Time NFL Quarterbacks

This is my Top 10 List of All-Time NFL Quarterbacks.

1.  Joe Montana

  

2.  Roger Staubach

3.  Brett Favre

4.  Peyton Manning

5.  John Elway

6.  Terry Bradshaw

7.  Troy Aikman

8.  Dan Marino

9.  Steve Young

10.Jim Kelly

If I left yours off or you disagree with my order, leave me a comment and let me know.